A Pitfall in Predicting the Future
"The problem with trying to predict the future is that you forget about the present."
"Find (a) simple solutions (b) to overlooked problems (c) that actually need to be solved, and (d) deliver them as informally as possible, (e) starting with a very crude version 1, then (f) iterating rapidly."
What Kind of Problems to Solve
"After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of businesses, Charlie Munger and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them. To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers."
"More than ever before, Americans are suffering from back problems. Back taxes, back rent, back auto payments."