Predictions Using Historical Values

by Tom Murcko
It has become extremely dangerous to use the past to forecast the future. Although people have gotten in trouble by thinking 'this time it's different', it really does seem that things are different now. There are now many more 'black swans': events that seemed highly improbable are now a frequent occurrence, and companies have taken on bigger risks than they thought they were.
Tags: black swans, risk
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